On this blog, I've talked about the Mathematics of Pandemics. I've even talked about the Politics of Pandemics. I'm long overdue to discuss the "Economics of Pandemics;" however, theorizing the potential effects of an inadequate response was pretty pointless, as anyone who has lived through the Great Recession would tell you. After all, "ignorance on fire is sometimes better than knowledge on ice," as the saying goes.
Regardless of whether or not our economic response to COVID was sufficient, the discussion was always framed in a false dichotomy: protecting the vulnerable versus protecting the economy.
It doesn't take a genius to know that 2020 has been a year for the United States economy. Tens of millions were encouraged or forced to remain indoors in an attempt to slow the spread. Only a few industries/businesses were allowed to stay open, as they were classified as "essential businesses." The longest expansion in U.S. history came to an end in Q1 2020, which resulted in a -5.0% contraction in economic activity (followed by a -32.
When popular narratives fail to capture the reality.
The post about what Libra is; most of all, what it not.
Four jobs available for every one person who is looking. What wrong with this picture?
Using quadatric terms for non-linear relationships and repeated OLS regression to study model consistency
Inflation is probably one of the most difficult phenomena to understand. It’s such a difficult topic to understand, most people have difficulty defining it. At the very least, it can be defined as a broad increase in the average level of prices throughout the entire economy. Some people also define inflation as simply an increase in the money supply. Even more difficult than simply defining the term, most probably aren’t aware of how inflation actually occurs, which can originate through a number of different factors.
While demand for US Treasuries remains brisk at primary auctions, the same can hardly be said for the short-end of the market, where moments ago we saw what happens to auction demand in a time of rapidly rising rates.
As shown in the chart above, while the yield on the 3 month Bills auctioned off today came in largely as expected at 1.94%, the demand did not, and after an already depressed Bid-to-Cover ratio of 2.